News

Cargo volumes continue to track ahead in 2015 compared to 2014

Lloyd’s List Australia – Jim Wilson (Sydney)

CONTAINER volumes (in TEUs) on both the inbound and outbound box trades to/from Australia/Oceania and the rest of the world continued to track ahead in late 2015 compared to late 2014, according to industry data provider Container Trades Statistics.

In October and November last year, teu import volumes stood at 391,400 and 367,100 teu were 3.35% and 3.79% ahead respectively compared to the same time in 2014.

The monthly mean average of teu imports from January to November 2015 was 348,591, compared to 331,373 the year before, a 5.2% increase.

On the exports side, in October and November last year, teu export volumes stood at 232,100 teu and 236,900 teu, which were 6.91% and 7.88% up respectively compared to the same time in 2014.

The monthly mean average of teu exports from January to November 2015 was 227,900, compared to 217,973 the year before, an increase of 4.55%.

On a global basis, teu volumes were largely flat in the year to November 2015, although there was a pronounced upturn of 11.77% in February 2015 compared to February 2014.

On average, the global box trade moved about 11.63m a month the year to November 2015, compared to 11.60m in the year to November 2014, a 0.23% increase. Total trade to November 2015 stood at 127.9m, up from the previous year of 127.6m, a 0.23% increase.

Source: Container Trade Statistics.

 

LOCAL: 24 hour strikes due at Patrick box terminals nationwide

Lloyd’s List Australia – Jim Wilson (Sydney)

MEMBERS of the Maritime Union of Australia who are employees at Patrick Container Terminals have escalated an industrial dispute with the company.

Patrick told its customers that union members at Patrick Sydney Autostrad Terminal began industrial action on Wednesday January 6th, with overtime and shift extension bans.

It appears that the union campaign will now intensify and spread to include nationwide stoppages at all four Patrick terminals.

So far, according to a company spokesman, notified strikes and industrial action are as follows:

• a 24-hour stoppage at Port Botany, Fremantle, East Swanson Dock and Fisherman Islands, from Monday 18 January 6am to 6am Tuesday January 19 (Fremantle 7am to 7am);
• a four-hour stoppage from 10am Tuesday (11am Fremantle);
• an overtime and extension ban at Fremantle from Tuesday January 19 at 12.01am.

In discussing the industrial action, a Patrick spokesman commented: “this is part of continuing negotiations to create a new Enterprise Agreement for Patrick’s container terminals business. We are working closely with customers to mitigate any impacts. However, we are still aiming for the speedy resolution of all reasonable claims and are considering all realistic options to do so in order to create a fair and sustainable Enterprise Agreement that supports a strong future for our business, including for our employees and customers.

One industry observer commented that the company is “talking hard” to the other stevedores, including Hutchison, to keep the trade moving, “which is good”.

Comment has also been sought from the Maritime Union of Australia however, it had not been received by the time of publication.

 

No respite for Asia-Europe trades as volume decline continues

Lloyd’s List Australia – Janet Porter (London)

CONTAINERISED cargo shipped from Asia to Europe in November lagged well behind 2014 levels, with the cumulative total for the first 11 months of last year down by 4.3%.

Latest figures from Container Trades Statistics show that depressed conditions continued as 2015 drew to a close, with November volumes down 4% compared with a year earlier, at just under 1.1m teu. That brought the January-November total to 13.4m teu, compared with 14m teu in the same period of 2014, although the latest figures are ahead of the 13m teu moved in the corresponding months of 2013.

Asia to North Europe cargo totalled 8.8m teu in the 11-month period, against 9.2m teu a year earlier. Volumes to eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea destinations were down to 2.3m teu from just over 2.4m teu in the January-November period of 2014, while to the western Mediterranean and North Africa traffic also declined from 2.4m teu to 2.3m teu.

November was also a poor month for ocean carriers on the return leg, with Europe to Asia volumes down 9.4% to 532,600 teu compared with the same month in 2014, although the 11-month figure was slightly ahead at 1.2%.

The weak January-November Asia-Europe volumes coincided with severe downwards pressure on freight rates. Although there was a spike at the end of the year as general rate increases kicked in, the rally looks likely to be short-lived.

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index fell 11% on Friday morning as China-Europe rates dropped back. Spot rates to northern Europe weakened by more than 24% to $932 per teu, while those to Mediterranean ports shed almost 19% to $1,022.

Neither is there any respite in sight, with global ship supply likely to outstrip demand for the next few years, according to Drewry, even though new orders have slowed recently as carriers start to show some restraint.

“Regardless of the recent slowdown in ordering activity, the die has been cast as deliveries for previously placed orders will swell the fleet by around 5% to 6% over the next couple of years, once again well above Drewry’s forecast for demand growth,” the firm notes.

“For the fourth year in a row fully cellular containership growth outpaced that of world port throughput and is fast approaching capacity of 20m teu,” the consultancy said in a new report.

By the end of 2015, the world’s fully cellular containership fleet consisted of approximately 5,200 vessels with an aggregate capacity of 19.8m teu, while another couple of million teu can be added to the total when container slots from general cargoships are included in the calculation.

That means that since the start of the century, the cellular fleet has grown fourfold in teu terms and will pass the 20m milestone sometime in the next few months.

“Carriers are faced with an impossible task of matching supply with demand as predicting the latter when ordering ships years in advance is far from being an exact science, but the expanding gap between supply and demand growths is one of the most obvious drivers of the recent slump in industry profits,” Drewry said.

The latest global price index published by CTS slid to 70 in November from 71 in October and 83 a year earlier. The index is based on the 2008 quarterly average equalling 100.

While the Asia-Europe trades are under severe pressure, the Asia-North America market is in slightly better shape, with volumes up 5% in the January-November period compared with the same 11 months of 2014.

Nevertheless, after six consecutive months of fairly healthy growth, November saw a 0.7% dip in volumes, which totalled 1.3m teu.

 

North Europe container volumes forecast to continue decline in 2016

Lloyd’s List Australia – Nora Zhou (New York)

WITH northern Europe’s economy still in the doldrums, declining container volumes in the area are expected to keep falling during the first half of 2016, says a report co-published by Hackett Associates and Shipping Economics and Logistics.

The report projects a 4.1% decrease in total moves across the north range for the coming six months in the new year, compared to a 5.2% decrease over the same period of 2015.

Loaded incoming containers are expected to fall by 4.5% in the next six months versus the previous six months, compared to a 6% decline in the year of 2015.

Total imports to Europe are expected to decrease by 3.2% in 2016 with at least a 4% slide anticipated in North Europe. The six north range ports are projected to post a 4.4% decrease in incoming volumes while loaded outgoing volumes are forecast to fall by 3.1%. Total handled volume is forecast to dip by 2.3%.

The Belgian port of Antwerp was the only one that had a decent year and will stay strong in 2016 as “it is not exposed to the collapse in the Russian trade volumes that has so plagued its northern competitors”, says the report.

From January to November 2015, year-on-year volume growth in major world ports is negative, according to Dr Sönke Maatsch of the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.

Dr Maatsch noted that the December value is unlikely to change much “and with reports of reduced economic activity in China we are not optimistic in the short term”.

Commenting on the trend going forward, Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates says that globalisation has reached an equilibrium, which might be another reason why the north European containers sector is seeing a slowdown.

“There are only a few industries still shifting sourcing and output to Asia, leaving the volume growth to follow consumption growth,” Mr Hackett said.

“Added to this is the uncertainty still felt by the European consumers due to economic, political and security issues, all of which drive down demand. We do not see recovery in volumes nor in freight rates.”

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